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Early Payout Calculator
Early Payout Calculator
New to matched betting? Learn how to profit from bookmaker promotions in my complete matched betting guide.
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What is this calculator for
This calculator is for making a profit when a bookmaker pays out early if certain conditions are met. For example, bet365 have a long-running football promotion where they will pay your bet out before the end of the match if your chosen football team goes two goals ahead. This particular bet365 offer is commonly known as a ‘2UP’ offer. However, there are variations for tennis, NFL, basketball, and more.
Generally, when the early payout conditions are met, you’ll have two options. Let the match complete for the potential of a significant return if the losing team turns the game around to draw or win. Alternatively, you can lock in a profit no matter the outcome by placing a further bet before the end of the game.
This calculator will tell you what back stake you must place at the exchange to lock in a profit. Enter your back and lay bets, plus the in-play exchange back odds and the calculator does all the hard work.
My complete guide to early payout offers will walk you through picking your selections, using the calculator and placing your bets.
How to use this calculator
When placing your qualifying bet, enter your back stake, back and lay odds and exchange commission into the calculator. In return, the outcomes table will show what you stand to make if different results occur. At this point, it will display a small loss for each outcome. This loss will happen if your team fails to meet the early payout conditions, like going up two goals.
Click the ‘The bookmaker has paid out early’ toggle, and you’ll see what will happen if your selection does trigger the early payout conditions. Now things are a different story. If the losing team comes back to draw or win, you’ll see a significant profit. Over the long term, that profit will outweigh all the small losses where the conditions are not met.
Locking in a profit, no matter the outcome
Once the early payout conditions have been met, it’s possible to lock in a profit no matter the game’s outcome. Locking in a profit requires you to follow the result and place another back bet before the end of the game.
To do this, enter the back odds from the exchange for your chosen selection. For example, if you initially placed a back bet on Man Utd at the bookmaker, enter the current back odds for Man Utd from the exchange. The calculator will tell you what back stake you need to place at the exchange to produce an equal profit, no matter the outcome.
Max payout
Use the ‘Maximum payout’ field when a bookmaker has an upper limit on the amount they will pay out early. Some don’t have a limit, so you can keep this field blank. Others have high limits, like £2,500. Entering the limit will ensure the calculator considers this should your winnings exceed the limit.
Advanced options
Lock in adjustment
Instead of spreading your locked-in profit equally between outcomes, the ‘lock in adjustment’ slider lets you weigh your profit for or against a comeback.
Part backs
This option lets you see your profit outcomes if you have already, or intend to, place a back bet on the exchange that doesn’t exceed the recommended back stake. You may have done this if you wanted to weigh your profit in favour of a particular outcome.
Dutching mode
Use ‘dutching’ mode when you can cover all outcomes using only back bets. One example is tennis, where you only have two possible outcomes. In some cases, two back bets at different bookmakers are preferable, as some bookmakers have different tennis retirement rules to those of the exchanges.
The calculator works in the same way as the regular mode, but if you were to lock in a profit before the match completes, you would place your final back bet at a third bookmaker rather than at the exchange.
Back and lay colours
The calculator uses Smarkets colours (green for back, blue for lay) by default. For Betfair colours (blue for back, pink for lay), you can switch in the main website navigation – under the palette icon on non-mobile devices.
What is matched betting?
Early payout offers are part of a greater whole we call ‘matched betting’. In general, it is a way of exploiting bookmaker promotions to make a predictable profit from each one. By covering all outcomes of an event, you can meet the requirements for claiming free bets or bonuses while your bets cancel out, resulting in an overall profit or loss close to breakeven. You can then repeat the process to extract about 80% of the free bet amount. For example, you can earn about £8 profit from a £10 free bet.
My comprehensive and free Matched Betting Guide will take you through the basic concept with a complete walkthrough of your first bookmaker promotion. You’ll even earn about £15 in the process.
Beyond that, my Matched Betting Academy details how to profit from every UK bookmaker’s ‘welcome’ offer, all for free. Designed and tested by matched betting experts, it also provides techniques to make money from extra place offers, 2UPs, price boosts, and other recurring existing customer offers, all logically structured and well-paced.
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