Back & Lay all day

Morning all,

I did this a while ago, but stopped as it was very manual in nature. It was basically to back/lay the 3rd favourite horse on each race for small stakes.

Because it’s small stakes, and typical movements of the markets, it was generally likely for both sides to get matched, even if they had to be left in running. From a £2 stake, each race your talking a couple pence to 50p if you back 11/lay 10.5.

You will never make huge sums, but can be profitable. If you think about it another way – there are approximately 10,000 races across the UK each year, so if you make 2p a race, that’s £200 end of year.

I’m starting again today with £25, so will keep a track of how things go here if I keep it up and people are interested?

All the best 🙂

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DireEmblem
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September 14, 2020 at 9:24 am

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DireEmblem 0 September 14, 2020 at 6:12 pm

Day 1 complete.

Starting balance: £25
Average back stake: £2
Total races backed: 26
Total races not fully matched: 1
Ending balance: £25.94

There are still races to go today, but I need to head out in 20 minutes, so my last race was the 1750 Wolverhampton, and I started with the 1300 Thirsk. A good start overall. Balance is up 3.74%, and an average of 3.6p per race. Its probably a bit early to work out if that is sustainable, but all things being the same, I might break £40 end of month.

A quick look at tomorrows races, I count 40 starting with Yarmouth at 1300, and finishing at Kempton 20:10.

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Andybets74 22 September 15, 2020 at 4:44 pm

Hello DE, always interested in new strategies.

What’s your logic behind the 3rd fav? I think the key to trading, which this is a form of, is entry and exit point. What’s your tactic on time to back (entry point)? Would you trade out for a loss if it wasn’t going your way? Races have different make ups from 16r + handicaps, bad each ways, small fields, group races etc so I don’t think you could blindly back the 3rd fav without any logic that the lay would drop.

Always great to bring new things to the table and open them up for discussion on here. We’re all looking for ways to increase profit!

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DireEmblem 0 September 23, 2020 at 8:30 am

Sorry for the delay, I’ve not posted in a while but still going, just been busy to write up!

I find it best to back/lay nearer the off when there is more funds going through the exchanges. Early doors you could get in at a bargain, but equally there can be a wide spread that when betting activity picks up, moves in the wrong direction for your lay.

The reason for the third favourite(picked by odds), is that the wider the better. Above 6 is the sweet spot – back 6.2/lay 6, or even better back 10.5/lay 10. For £2 minimum stakes laying 2.01, your win side could then make you 33p/1p, or 90p/1p.

Worst case scenario is you lose £2 if you can’t get your lay to match, best case +33p/90p as above. I’ll work out my averages if/when I post an update.

Ideal scenario would be if I could increase daily profit to £30 a day, and even better a cost effective way of automating.

I had this strategy work in the past, but gave up when I reached £100. The reason being due to the manual nature, and it’s not a 100% risk free process. In addition, it might only work for micro stakes, because they are so small they can work for any event.

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Andybets74 22 September 24, 2020 at 8:05 am

Thanks for the reply mate, understand more what you’re doing here. Sounds like you’re exploiting the volatility of the market before the off, a quick get in and out for a small profit. I would say you still need to apply some logic to it and not just go blind on the 3rd fav. If I get the time I’ll have a look into this and see if it would work for me. Nice one ☝️

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Gilbs 16 October 16, 2020 at 8:48 pm

I have also been playing a variation of this on football in the Betfair exchange. I look for a game which has been in play for about 80 minutes where the score is either a draw or a 1 goal difference.
Once beyond 80 minutes, the match odds change much more quickly. This means that back odds will quickly overtake lay odds taken shortly beforehand and start to generate profit.
e.g. If after 80 minutes Team A is leading Team B by 1-0, and the back and lay odds on the draw are 4.8 / 5.0, I would place a £2 lay bet against the draw. In very little time the back odds increase to over 5.0 and build a cash out profit. I normally cash out when the profit reaches 50p. The potential outcomes are:
a. no change in score – cash out at 50p or whenever you feel comfortable
b. winning team scores again – vastly increasing draw odds so much larger cash out available or let bet run to end of match for maximum profit
c. losing team scores to create a draw- creating negative profit. Either cash out for limited loss of liability or let bet run in hope that either team scores to restore positive profit or lose full liability.

For this system to work well, the back/lay odds must be tight and the bet placed from 80 minutes onwards so that the odds are changing quickly.

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Psybro 0 February 9, 2022 at 6:51 am

i dont think 95 pence for a whole days work is value, a lot of time for nada i….ts like working a year for a weeks wages

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