Using 'Best Price Guaranteed' to create a post match bet arb.

I had a punt on skybet’s ‘2nd place paid out as winner’ promo yesterday..

I backed (£10 max) @7.0 and layed @7.4 for around 90p loss.

I picked the winner, unfortunately, but instead of a 90p loss I ended up with almost a tenner profit because the starting price (SP) was 8.0 and skybet’s best price guarantee kicked in and settled me at 8.0 instead of 7.0

This sparked my interest…… how about identifying runners with very close back n lay odds for a small loss (or occasionally no loss at all) hope that the SP has drifted and lock in a risk free bet (more likely a very small risk bet)

One benefit of this method is that there will be no maximum stake limit because we wont be exploiting price boosts or enhancements which are often stake restricted. Using the example above but with a £100 stake instead of £10 would of turned a profit of over £90 although it must also be noted that a loss of around £9 is significant if the result went the wrong way! A straight £9 bet on the winner would return £72 so there is value to be gained but not as much as I first thought.

Ideally we would need to be finding tighter back n lay odds than the example above to create real value, preferably a no loss qualifier (occasionally available) for a genuine risk free bet.

I suppose the key factors are as follows.
1. Identifying runners that are likely to drift in price.
2. Can that runner be backed n layed at prices that will create significant value or a risk free punt
3. Does that runner have a reasonable chance of winning

Having actually wrote this which forced me to think it through in more detail and look harder at the numbers, I’m less optimistic that there will be a lot of opportunities to exploit this method but I’m submitting it anyways for you reprobates to mull over 😉

Any ideas on how to best identify likely price drifters would be a good place to start?

Any responses/input at all is welcome.

Be lucky son! ( <–employ your best Danny Dyer accent )

+0

Cyber Hustler
0

December 4, 2015 at 12:13 pm

New to matched betting?

My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learn Matched Betting

Tony 12 December 4, 2015 at 12:33 pm

I harboured similar thoughts a few weeks ago when an expected loser I had backed at 11.0 romped home and had gone off at 13.0 – queue a delightfully unexpected £19 profit on a race I had expected to lose quid on 🙂

It would likely only be profitable on runners with large(ish) odds… a drift from 11.0 to 13.0 is lovely, but a drift from 1.83 to 1.9 is less rewarding

I think I will just treat these as wee bonuses when they do occur, rather than hunting them out to be honest.

+0

Cyber Hustler 0 December 4, 2015 at 1:23 pm

Yeah Tony I was on the same 13.0 a few weeks back I think Matt blogged it, unfortunately I backed it closer to the off and it was already 13.0 when I got on.

I think you’re right about treating these as a bonus, especially as to make a decent amount on these you need to be staking large which means the ‘small loss’ from a closely matched back n lay can start to get a bit lumpy.

+0

dekoder 1 December 4, 2015 at 5:25 pm

I’ve had similar thoughts when this happened to me 🙂
The issues I’ve noticed is that when the odds drop (and horse wins) you are seen as an arber.

I’ve actually done a strategy when I would get on a horse that was a small arb (or very close) a couple of hours before the race but hold of with laying till few minutes before the race. Most of the time the lay prices were coming down closer to the off and I’ve made a good couple of hundred within a week but… lost 3-4 accounts (heavily limited, bonus bet gubbed, 1 even closed). I definitely regret doing it, would’ve made more from normal offers from these accounts over few months.

+0