My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
3

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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Pickle 58 June 22, 2016 at 10:20 pm

Sounds good beesty. One question that springs to mind is what happens if whilst your waiting for the 13.0 to match on betfair you go back on 365 and the odds have dropped to 11.0?

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Dave_Jones 7 June 22, 2016 at 11:57 pm

£17K in a month sounds amazing beesty, and providing your not winding us up then congratulations that is a terrific result. I seem to remember you posting something about E/W arbing some time back but I didn’t pay much attention to it, sounds like I probably should have done, I will take a look and see if I can find it.

Your previous posts in the past have been sensible so I think you are probably on the level with this claim, so once again congrats on achieving an amazing return in such a short period of time.

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Dave_Jones 7 June 23, 2016 at 12:02 am

I found the post I referred to above its here if anyone wants to see it:-

https://matchedbettingblog.com/topic/newmarket-3-40-sky-huge-arb-extra-place/#.V2sYryb2bIV

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dingodollar 8 June 23, 2016 at 12:56 am

4K ..check,good at maths ..check no fucking clue how to do this ..check!congrats on the result any ways sounds impressive.You will be able to get a really good kitchen or was it bathroom with that wad ?

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kjillman 1 June 23, 2016 at 1:17 am

what as pickle suggests odds don’t match and are you just randomly picking a horse with close back and lay odds hoping to get a match?

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beesty2016 3 June 23, 2016 at 2:25 am

There’s always a risk in odds changing there becomes a point when odds get slashed on all the horses often around 8 mins before the race on bet365. This is when I turn my attention to the to be placed market and call it the 2nd half in laying off the places on my horses.

I will always ensure I get the lay part in the exchange first so e.g 100 @ 13 goes first. Before I back the 365 price of 12/1. If at any point odds do change I just cancel the betfair bet and look to trade off at evens. Usually enough time to do it though.

The other biggest risk is a last minute non runner which takes the field down to less than 8 or 16 and thus deducting a place. Never got done over by this but there were 2 occasions over the month where I had to ride the race out and a horse finishing 3rd or 4th could have hit me for around a grand.

Another question people may ask is what if the horse drifts on the exchanges? Well bet365 always offer a min cash out of 90 pc of your stake so you can get out that way. You can play for a best odds guarnteed win but often I was able to flip it over on the exchange win market to combat any potential 10pc loss that may occur. More often than not the horses I did came right in before the start and made the place market more profitable 3 mins before the race.

I will make a shortlist up in the morning of races that could work if anyone wants a go but this is subject to non runners so the shortlist can change throughout the day.

Thanks for the supportive messages good to see people believe it and good luck to anyone who has a go tomorrow.

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Sy 1 June 23, 2016 at 4:21 am

Beesty I’m not going to doubt this isn’t profitable or your methods for that matter. But I have some questions if you don’t mind.

17k profit @ £10-14 per backed horse would mean you would need to back 1214-1700 seperate horses in the month in order to achieve that. That’s 39-55 horses per day every day for a month on specified races that have the qualifying amount of runners your stating. How did you achieve that exactly?

As i understand it, you are laying the place later and relying on the general odds of the horse dropping in order for the place lay odds on betfair to get low enough to achieve the margin you are getting there i.e 4/3.3 per horse.

My next question is why not just do the bet365 bet and just lay off the win and wait nearer the off to do the place lay. Why in reverse?

Again I could well be barking up the wrong tree here and i may well be missing something but I’m trying to fully understand what you are doing here and why it benefits to do it in the particular way your approaching it so could do with some elaberation on the above.

And well done on your profits.

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beesty2016 3 June 23, 2016 at 6:37 am

Sy – when I first started I had a 4K float in both accounts. For the horse mentioned above I would have gone 200 ew. As time went on I could have the horse for 400-500 ew therefore making 70 quid on one horse before the race. I would wait until 3 mins before the start to do the places as i could see it was in my favour but the liquidity properly comes in 10 mins before hand on and therefore I can sort it out then.

I have considered waiting on the win part as well and therefore win money on both sides but this is outright trading and i would have to take a few 10pc losses on the way. I have been making enough not to consider that as an option.

Also if you can do multiple runners in a race it helps with commission with the place markers. E.g if one places and one doesn’t you will probably pay no commission on the one that loses.

Also something that did contribute around 5k of the winnings were jackpot races at ascot where extra places were offered and I could have played it safe for a 600-700 profit pre race or won 100 but had the chance of winning 2k. They are a goldmine if you know exactly what your doing.

Shortlist will follow later this morning.

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patrick
Blocked
6 June 23, 2016 at 8:02 am

I dont believe one bit of it beesty.
Another bulletin board fantasist.

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Pickle 58 June 23, 2016 at 8:49 am

I bet hes gutted he doesnt meet your approval Patrick

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patrick
Blocked
6 June 23, 2016 at 8:57 am

Do you believe him Pickle

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Dave_Jones 7 June 23, 2016 at 9:17 am

Guys can we try and not get into a slanging match about how much or how little beesty has made doing this strategy. He has been kind enough to post up what he has done. It is now down to us to see for ourselves if there is good money to be made following this system.

I myself have done the extra places offers in the past and have found that you will often make a loss on the win part of the E/W bet, but a slight profit on the place part. Giving you either a B/E or slightly profitable bet even if the horse doesn’t come in on the extra place position.

Beesty I think has probably taken this a lot further and found some inefficiencies in the market, we need to see if those inefficiencies are still there and if we can exploit them. Lets not waste time on arguing how much Beesty has made lets instead have a look at the E/W markets and see if we can make some decent cash.

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Pickle 58 June 23, 2016 at 9:47 am

Ive no idea Patrick. Ill look at it later. My biggest fear is not getting matched on the win part as my money is in smarkets and i cant just cancel the bet. I also dont know if bet365 let you put bets of £500 e/w on 12/1 shots or even if they do would they let you back 4 or 5 horses in a single race?. As i said above ive no idea so im not gonna say hes lieing about what hes been doing.

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patrick
Blocked
6 June 23, 2016 at 10:02 am

Exactly Pickle thats why I believe what he has written is not fact but fantasy.
Dave Jones,its not a slanging match.
All I am doing is challenging beesty theorey.
Ice Magic thought a week ago he had a sure fire plan of laying horses as he won the 1st week doing.
Low and behold this week he had 4 losing lays on the trot and lost everything.
To make £17k a month matchbetting places on horses is pure fantasy.

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JeremyUsbourne 0 June 23, 2016 at 10:11 am

EW arbing is extremely profitable but if you post proof of 17k in one month I shall livestream me taking a dump on the counter of the south Croydon branch of William Hill.

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