If Hurricane Fly finishes 1st or 2nd in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham on Tuesday, Ladbrokes will refund all losing bets on that race as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £16.86! And here’s how…
We need to select a horse and hope he doesn’t win the race, as only losing bets are refunded in the event of Hurricane Fly finishing 1st or 2nd. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my bets on Jezki to win.
Step 1:
Place £25.00 on Jezki @ 11.00 = Potential profit of £250.00.
Lay £23.01 on Jezki @ 12.00 = Potential liability of £253.11.
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the various outcomes…
|
Jezki wins and Hurricane Fly places 1st or 2nd |
+£250.00 – £253.11 = £3.11 loss |
|
Jezki wins and Hurricane Fly doesn’t place 1st or 2nd |
£250.00 – £253.11 = £3.11 loss |
|
Jezki doesn’t win and Hurricane Fly places 1st or 2nd |
-£25.00 + £21.86 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £16.86 profit |
|
Jezki doesn’t win and Hurricane Fly doesn’t place 1st or 2nd |
-£25.00 + £21.86 = £3.14 loss |
So we will win £16.86 if Jezki doesn’t win and Hurricane Fly places 1st or 2nd. Any other outcome and we will lose just over £3.00, which I’m sure you’ll agree is a risk worth taking as Hurricane Fly is heavily fancied to win this one and has short odds at the time of writing..
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.