The Cricket World Cup 2015 has arrived and it’s time for a Unibet offer! Simply place an outright bet of £10, £20 or £30 before Tuesday 17th February 23:59 on this year’s winner and Unibet will return our stakes if Australia win the ICC World Cup 2015. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £18.64 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a country other than Australia. This ensures that if Australia go on to win the World Cup, we will automatically be eligible for the refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on South Africa.
Place £30.00 on South Africa @ 4.25 = Potential profit of £97.50
Lay £28.02 on South Africa @ 4.60 = Potential liability of £100.87
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| South Africa win | +£97.50 – £100.87 = £3.37 loss |
| Australia win | -£30.00 + £26.62 + £28.50 (extracted from our £30.00 refund bonus) = £25.12 profit |
| Neither wins | -£30.00 + £26.62 = £3.38 loss |
So as things stand we will make £25.12 profit if Australia win the World Cup. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £3.38 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Australia at Betfair. We need to divide our potential loss of £3.38 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission that is deducted from any winnings. This gives us a lay stake of £3.56.
Lay £3.56 on Australia @ 2.82 = Potential liability of £6.48
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| South Africa win | -£3.37 + £3.38 = £0.01 profit |
| Australia win | £25.12 – £6.48 = £18.64 profit |
| Neither wins | -£3.38 + £3.38 = £0.00 |
Unlike a lot of other bookies, Unibet refund stakes as bonus money (stake returned) instead of free bets (stake not returned), which enables us to extract slightly more profit. All we have to do is roll our £30.00 bonus over once at minimum odds of 1.40. Using straightforward matched betting we should be able to extract approximately £28.50 from our £30.00 bonus (i.e. if we backed at 1.50 and laid at 1.55).
If Australia don’t win the World Cup we will break even and there’s no harm done. If Australia do win, we will make a rather nice profit of £18.64!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.