Man City vs Liverpool Coral Money-Back Special

A great Christmas offer from Coral. Money back as a free bet on losing first / last goal scorer and correct score bets up to £50.00 if Liverpool beat Man City. By using matched betting, we would be able to turn our £50.00 free bet into approximately £40.00 cash. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of approximately £3.00! And here’s how…

Whenever I do these sort of money-back offers, I always stick to the correct score market.  I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here.

We will need to select a correct score that isn’t a Liverpool win and I will explain why later.  With that in mind and having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 3-1 Man City win.

Step 1:

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

3-1 Man City                       £600.00 – £607.23 = -£7.23

Liverpool win                     -£50.00 + £42.73 (5% comm.) + £40.00 (return from free bet) = £32.73

Not Liverpool win or 3-1    -£50.00 + £42.73 = -£7.27

So as things stand we will win £32.73 if Liverpool win the match! Unfortunately we also stand to lose just over £7.00 if Liverpool don’t win, so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying a Liverpool win at Betfair.  If we had selected a correct score that was a Liverpool win, it would make the next step a lot more complicated.

Step 3:

As £7.27 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration.  £7.27 / 0.95 = £7.65.

Now let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

3-1 Man City                        -£7.23 + £7.27 = £0.04 profit

Liverpool win                        £32.73 – £29.84 = £2.89 profit

Not Liverpool win or 3-1      -£7.27 + £7.27 = £0.00

So, if Liverpool don’t win, we break even, but if they do pull off an upset, we make £2.89 profit!