This is another great offer from Paddy Power. If the match ends as a draw, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the match, up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £10.93! And here’s how…
Whenever I do these sort of money-back offers, I always stick to the correct score market. I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here.
We will need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw and I will explain why later. With that in mind and having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 2-1 Arsenal win.
Step 1:
Place £100.00 on 2-1 Arsenal @ Paddy Power @ 9.0 = Potential profit of £800.00.
Lay £90.45 on 2-1 Arsenal @ Betfair @ 10.0 = Potential liability of £814.05.
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-1 Arsenal | £800.00 – £814.05 = -£14.05 |
| Draw | +£85.93 (£90.45 minus 5% commission) *Our £100.00 stake is refunded |
| Not Draw or 2-1 | -£100.00 + £85.93 = -£14.07 |
So as things stand we will win £85.93 if the game ends as a draw! Unfortunately we also stand to lose just over £14.00 if the game doesn’t end in a draw and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair. If we had selected a correct score that was a draw such as 0-0 or 1-1, it would make the next step a lot more complicated.
Step 3:
As £14.07 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £14.07 / 0.95 = £14.81.
Lay £14.81 on the draw @ Betfair @ 3.85 = Potential liability of £42.21.
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-1 Arsenal | -£14.05 + £14.07 = £0.02 profit |
| Draw | £85.93 – £42.21 = £43.72 profit |
| Not Draw or 2-1 | -£14.07 + £14.07 = £0.00 |
So, if the game isn’t drawn we break even, but if the game is drawn we make £43.72 profit for very little work!
As the odds are so favourable with this offer and because the potential profit is so high, I have opted to lay the draw again in order to lock in a guaranteed profit. And here’s how…
Lay another £11.50 on the draw @ Betfair @ 3.85 = Potential liability of £32.78.
Now let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-1 Arsenal | £0.02 + £10.93 (£11.50 minus 5% commission) = £10.95 profit |
| Draw | £43.72 – £32.78 = £10.94 profit |
| Not Draw or 2-1 | £0.00 + £10.93 (£11.50 minus 5% commission) = £10.93 profit |
So regardless of the outcome of this football match, we are guaranteed a minimum profit of £10.93!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.