Matched betting treble calculation

  • A bookie gives a free bet on completing a weekly treble. Calculating the odds from the outset of the 3 matches layed sequentially will give a small qualifying loss. If the exchange odds for all three matches remains the same the qualifying loss from the outset remains the same. The exchange stake for the 2nd match is the sum of the exchange stake and exchange liability for the 1st match. Similarly for the 3rd match.

    However if the exchange odds for the 2nd and 3rd matches changes the change will alter the qualifying loss. So the question is how do you calculate the exchange stake for the 2nd and third matches to keep the qualifying loss the same regardless of the result. Obviously the ql will increase or decrease depending on the plus or minus change in the odds.

    As an example I recently did a treble where the exchange odds changed on the 2nd match which give for an original ql of -1.53 to a difference of +4.03 for a bookie win, to -6.35 for a bookie loss on the 3rd match.

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    Odds will fluctuate when laying sequentially. Sometimes they’ll move in your favour, giving you a smaller qualifying loss, and sometimes they’ll move against you, giving you a larger one. It should even itself out over time.

    The alternative to sequential laying is laying your multiple at Smarkets. You simply build the multiple you want to lay and then lay it as one bet, meaning you don’t have to wait to lay each leg sequentially.

    I hope that helps.

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    Hello123 0

    New question please

    I have been given a surprise bet by Kwiff with the following for Minnesota United Vs Portland Timbers:
    Minnesota United to win be winning at half time

    AND total goals in the match to be over 1.5

    Ideally I would just use SMarkets and lay against those outcomes but it isn’t allowing me to do it. Would a for bet for the following be equivalent and guarantee profit

    Half time double chance – draw or Portland Timbers

    And Under 1.5 goals

    Just don’t want to mess it up.

    Thanks everyone

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